Backtest: Veem ETF · Top 4 vs SPY Buy & Hold
Veem ETF · Top 4
SPY Buy & Hold
Returns are gross of fees and taxes.
Yearly Returns
| Year | Strategy | SPY B&H |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | +8.5% | +8.6% |
| 2005 | +11.7% | +4.8% |
| 2006 | +26.4% | +15.8% |
| 2007 | +16.3% | +5.1% |
| 2008 | +7.3% | -36.8% |
| 2009 | +20.5% | +26.4% |
| 2010 | +12.1% | +15.1% |
| 2011 | +6.7% | +1.9% |
| 2012 | +12.6% | +16.0% |
| 2013 | +11.4% | +32.3% |
| 2014 | +7.1% | +13.5% |
| 2015 | -7.0% | +1.2% |
| 2016 | +0.5% | +12.0% |
| 2017 | +19.6% | +21.7% |
| 2018 | -3.3% | -4.6% |
| 2019 | +6.8% | +31.2% |
| 2020 | +16.2% | +18.3% |
| 2021 | +14.9% | +28.7% |
| 2022 | -8.5% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +5.2% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +6.5% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +29.4% | +17.7% |
| 2026 | +7.8% | +13.1% |
Recent Rebalances
What it does
Veem ETF is a monthly rotation across 11 global asset classes, based on Meb Faber's Global Tactical Asset Allocation. Each month it ranks the assets by momentum, holds the top N, and moves to cash any asset in a downtrend. Top 3 is Faber's original setting; Top 1 is the most concentrated, Top 5 the most diversified.
What it is for
Veem.io is built to be held with real savings through bad years, not to chase extreme returns. The experimental, high-risk side lives at Zool.io, play money only.
Ulysses contract
Before any money went in, the four limits below were written down and signed as the only things that can open a review of the strategy. A losing year, lagging an index, or a drawdown the backtest has already seen are not reasons to stop: they are the price of admission. Like Ulysses tied to the mast, the decision to hold was made while the sea was calm.
| Measure | Opens a review |
|---|---|
| Drawdown from peak | -30% |
| 2026 so far | -15% at close |
| Losing years in a row | 3 |
| Trades, trailing 12 months | > 35 |
The live figures are on Veem ETF · Top 3, the variant this account actually runs. This page shows a backtest only.
Execution
The backtest runs on the US tickers below; live execution buys their Irish-domiciled UCITS equivalents, which for most non-US persons avoids US estate-tax exposure.
| US Ticker | UCITS Ticker | UCITS Name |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | CSPX | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS |
| QQQ | EQQS | Invesco Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS |
| IWM | XRSU | Xtrackers Russell 2000 UCITS |
| EFA | EXUS | Xtrackers MSCI World ex-USA UCITS |
| EEM | EIMI | iShares Core MSCI EM UCITS |
| VNQ | XRES | Invesco S&P US Real Estate UCITS |
| RWX | IPRE | iShares European Property Yield UCITS |
| BCI | ICOM | iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS |
| GLD | SGLD | Invesco Physical Gold ETC |
| IEF | CBU0 | iShares USD Treasury 7-10y UCITS |
| TLT | DTLA | iShares USD Treasury 20+y UCITS |
| TIP | IDTP | iShares USD TIPS UCITS |
| LQD | LQDA | iShares USD Corporate Bond UCITS |
| HYG | IHYA | iShares USD High Yield Corp Bond UCITS |
| IGOV | IGLA | iShares Global Government Bond UCITS |
| SHY | IBTA | iShares USD Treasury 1-3yr UCITS |
How these numbers are computed
Curves and metrics are gross: no spread, commission, slippage or tax is deducted, a drag of about 0.2 to 1.0 CAGR point per year at this turnover. Sharpe is (CAGR − 4%) / volatility. Win Rate is the share of positive months, not of winning trades.
