Backtest: Strategy vs BTC Buy & Hold
Veem BTC Strategy
BTC Buy & Hold
Returns are gross of fees and taxes.
Yearly Returns
| Year | Strategy | BTC B&H |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +23.5% | +47.6% |
| 2016 | +27.1% | +112.0% |
| 2017 | +604.6% | +1479.6% |
| 2018 | -2.7% | -72.7% |
| 2019 | +29.2% | +92.0% |
| 2020 | +143.2% | +253.9% |
| 2021 | +129.4% | +93.4% |
| 2022 | +0.0% | -66.9% |
| 2023 | +25.1% | +151.0% |
| 2024 | +82.5% | +121.3% |
| 2025 | -7.8% | -6.1% |
| 2026 | -2.6% | -15.1% |
Recent Trades
What it does
Veem BTC is a weekly trend-following signal on Bitcoin. Three classic indicators must all point up to hold BTC; when one turns, the position moves to cash. It holds BTC about a third of the time, gives up part of the upside, and avoids the deep crashes: roughly the return of holding BTC, with a max drawdown of -35% instead of -83%.
What it is for
Veem.io is built to be held with real savings through bad years, not to chase extreme returns. The experimental, high-risk side lives at Zool.io, play money only.
Ulysses contract
IN ENVELOPEBefore any money went in, the four limits below were written down and signed as the only things that can open a review of the strategy. A losing year, lagging an index, or a drawdown the backtest has already seen are not reasons to stop: they are the price of admission. Like Ulysses tied to the mast, the decision to hold was made while the sea was calm.
| Measure | Live | Opens a review |
|---|---|---|
| Drawdown from peak | -9.8% | -55% |
| 2026 so far | -0.6% | -20% at close |
| Losing years in a row | 0 | 3 |
| Trades, trailing 12 months | 2 | > 15 |
Live figures are time-weighted, so deposits and withdrawals cannot fake a gain or a drawdown. Running live since 2026-04-01, measured to 2026-11-14.
How these numbers are computed
Curves and metrics are gross: no spread, commission, slippage or tax is deducted, a drag of about 2 to 4 CAGR points at this turnover. Sharpe is (CAGR − 4%) / volatility. Win Rate is the share of positive weeks, not of winning trades.
